Sunday, September 13, 2020

Japan and UAP

The Japan Times

On 28 April 2020, an article appeared in "The Japan Times" titled "Pentagon officially releases military videos of UFOs." The story told how the Pentagon had released officially released three videos showing "unidentified aerial phenomena." It went on to say:

 "In Tokyo, Defense Minister Taro Kono said Tuesday that Self Defense pilots had never witnessed a UFO. To be honest, I don't believe in UFOs," Kono said at a news conference. The minister said he would consider protocols for SDF pilots in case of encounters, including how to record and report any incidents."

In a 2 May 2020 follow-up article titled "Japan Defense Ministry to draft UFO protocols in response to U.S. footage," The Japan Times reported that:

"The Ministry will consider procedures for responding to, recording and reporting on UFO encounters as their unknown nature might cause confusion among Self Defense Forces pilots...Defense Minister Taro Kono said Tuesday that SDF pilots have never encountered UFOs but that the ministry will develop protocols for the possibility. According to the ministry, Air Self Defense Force fighter jets from seven bases ranging from Hokkaido to Okinawa are scrambled to monitor and identify aircraft of unknown nationality....If (UFOs) are encountered, training will be cancelled immediately,," an ASDF source said. "We will week to identify it from a safe distance, including whether it is a drone and report it to the Air Defense Direction Center for orders"...."To be honest, I don't believe in UFOs,"Kono said, "But because the Defense Department released such a video, I would like to hear from the U.S. side about its intentions and analysis."

Follow-ups 

Journalist Giuliano Marinkovic located details of a Japanese Defense Press press conference dated 8 September 2020, with the following question and answer (Google English translation) session:

Q. Regarding UFOs, I would like to ask about your coping policy. When I heard about it in May, I thought I would consider it but how is the status of the examination? Also, what are your thoughts on the cooperation between Japan and the United States when you find an unidentified flying object?

A. We will soon be dealing with the policy. Japan and the United States were talked about during the recent meeting with Secretary Esper in Guam. We must refrain from giving details, but we will continue to work closely.

Q. Does this mean that you have been collaboration on UFOs in the future?

A. I would like to refrain from giving a brief explanation of the details.

Later, in a Tweet dated 9 September 2020, Giuliano Marinkovic, advised he had located the following item .on a Japanese television station report.

"Policy to deal with "UFO" Minister Kono, "it will be soon."

Defense Minister Kono announced that he will soon announce a "coping policy" when the SDF encounters unidentified flying objects.

Defense Minister Kono: "We will soon discuss the policy regarding Japan and the United states, we talked about it during the meeting with Secretary Esper in Guam the other day."

Minister Kono confirmed at the Japan-US Defense Ministers meeting last month that the SDF and the US Forces have agreed to cooperate on UFOs (unidentified flying objects.) According to people involved in the Self Defense Forces there is eyewitness information that "I often saw it in the past" and in the future we [plan to consider taking measures such as taking pictures. In  April of this year, the US Department of Defense released a UFO video for the first time. The Japanese Ministry of Defense also indicated that Minister Kono would set procedures in case the SDF encounters a UFO."

Comment:

It will be interesting to see just what Japanese SDF protocols re UAP are put into place. It will also be interesting to see if US Secretary of Defense Esper, speaks to other countries about UAP.

Update: 16 September 2020

Thanks to Stig Agermose for drawing our attention to this follow-up:

"Japan's Defense Minister has instructed his ministry and Self-Defense Force personnel on what to do in the event they encounter unidentified flying objects, or UFOs.

Kono Taro issued the instructions on Monday. They call for reports to be made if anyone spots an unidentifiable object in the air that could affect the country's defense and security. The guidelines also urge all-out efforts to take photos or videos of the object to carry out necessary analysis. The Defense Ministry says the instructions were issued due to an increase in the use of drones and other objects that fly differently from conventional airplanes. Earlier this year, the US Defense Department released videos showing what it claims were UFOs, and set up a task force to investigate them.(Source: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200914_33/?fbclid=IwAR1u9lN3saUGnDN5etbF86S_AENvTAsKipWmNGrcMf8rGPaR7P7OyfWd24Q)

Saturday, September 5, 2020

September 2020 US Securities and Exchange Commission filing by TTSA

 A few days ago, To The Stars Academy of Arts and Science  (TTSA) filed its latest set of documents with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. One of the documents filed, is titled "The Company's Business." Previous editions of "The Company's Business" have provided such information about aspects of TTSA's operations, as Linda Moulton Howe's transfer of "Arts Parts" to TTSA; previously unknown details about SCOUT; and financial aspects of the ADAM Project. What do these latest documents provide, which previous editions have not?


The Entertainment Division

The "Monsters of California" feature film script has been completed and production is scheduled to commence in the Fall of 2020.

The plans for the release of a short film, "Poet Anderson" has been paused to allow for discussions on a full length movie.

Science and Technology Division

* The VAULT contents "...have been viewed over 24 million times."

* Projects still under consideration, are advanced quantum communications; aerospace technology; Beamed Energy Propulsion Launch Systems, and Space-Time Metrics Engineering.

* SCOUT (Signature Collection of UAP Tracker) is scheduled to launch in the summer of 2020, now delayed. Available via the iTunes App store and Google Play, later in 2020.

* ADAM (Acquisition and Data Analysis of Materials)  "The next series of scientific analysis on these metamaterials requires access to specialized equipment and our goal is that the tests will be conducted pursuant to the CRADA...the company is unable to estimate the scope, timeline, and cost of such efforts."

Due to COVID-19, "Laboratory tests which we planned to conduct pursuant to our ADAM Research Project was paused and will resume at some later date when laboratories resume normal operations."

Talks program

"In May 2020, the company launched a TTSA Talks Program that will feature conversations and interactive question and answer sessions with experts and other stakeholders that dive deep into the complexity of advanced technology problems, proposed solutions and the TTSA public benefit mission."

Friday, September 4, 2020

The seventh "observable"

 The five "observables"

On a number of occasions, Luis Elizondo has mentioned that the Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program (AATIP) identified five "observables" concerning Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP.) These are:

1. Sudden and instantaneous acceleration.

2. Hypersonic velocities without signatures.

3. Low observability.

4. Trans media travel.

5. Positive lift.

In a post dated 11 August 2020, US researcher Danny Silva, spoke about a sixth AATIP "observable," namely, biological effects on humans. I would like to add a seventh "observable, " i.e. the effects that UAP have on our own technology.

UAP effects on our technology

Motor vehicles

Perhaps the most well know piece of our technology which has been long associated with UAP effects, is the motor vehicle. A typical example is the following:

At 6.35pm, on 8 August 1971, near the town of Kadina, South Australia, a man was driving alone when he noted his surroundings were lit up by an orange hue. Suddenly, the car's engine stopped and the car's lights went out. He was unable to restart the engine so stopped the car. Getting out of the vehicle, he noted an object some 150 feet above the car. During this time he noted a buzzing/purring noise was constantly audible. The object then departed to the south east, after 2-3 minutes of remaining stationary above him. Before losing sight of it, he got back in the car and successfully restarted the engine. 

In numerous other sightings, the engine, headlights, and radio of motor vehicles, have been affected. Perhaps, the classic collection of such cases is "UFO Reports Involving Vehicle Interference" authored by Mark Rodeghier, and published by the J Allen Hynek Center for UFO Studies, in 1981. This collection and analysis, studied several hundred such cases, which illustrate the diverse nature of effects on motor vehicles due to the close proximity of UAP. 

Aircraft

The other piece of our technology which has been affected in some instances, are aircraft. One of the most comprehensive catalogues available, was compiled by French Researcher Dominique F. Weinstein, and published by the National Aviation Reporting Center on Anomalous Phenomena, (NARCAP) in 2001. Weinstein's work features details of several hundred cases of sightings involving aircrews, between 1916 and 2000. About 14% of cases feature electromagnetic effects to equipment onboard the aircraft, involving "radios, radar, compasses, engines ..."

Weinstein and Richard Haines took a closer look at EMF effects on aircraft in another 2001 NARCAP study, titled "A Preliminary Study of Fifty Seven Pilot Sighting Reports Involving Alleged Electro-Magnetic Effects on Aircraft Systems."

 Nuclear weapons

Image courtesy of Amazon Books

There have been a number of instances where nuclear missiles have reportedly been affected by UAP.. For example: 

US researcher Robert Hastings has documented a number of these, including an incident around 1977 at Grand Forks Air Force Base in North Dakota, where a now retired USAF Missile Security Supervisor related that unidentified lights had interfered with their ability to communicate with the launch sites. No missile could have been launched if required.

Robert L Salas reported on his involvement with an incident at Malstrom Air Force Base, Montana in March 1967, where numerous nuclear missile warheads were reportedly deactivated, and UAP observed. 

Other technology

In other cases involving UAP, there have been reported effects on numerous pieces of technology. For details of individual cases. I would recommend a viewing of the EMF category of the National Investigations Committee on Aerial Phenomena (NICAP) website. Cases go back to at least 24 June 1947: 

"Prospector Fred M Johnson sighted five or six "round,  metallic looking discs" 30 feet in diameter, with tails or fins. He got a better look at one when he focused his telescope on it. As the discs banked in the sun 1000 feet overhead, Johnson, was surprised to see his compass needle was weaving back and forth . It ceased doing so as soon as the UFOs, which were in view less than a minute, headed off toward the southwest." (Clark, J. 1992."The UFO Encyclopedia: Volume Two," Omnigraphics, Detroit, page 129.)

Deliberate or accidental?

The debate has always been as to whether the effects we notice, are due to a byproduct of UAP, e.g. as a side effect of say a propulsion system; or a deliberate targeting of our technology. The fact that not every close encounter between our technology and UAP results in effects, would seem to argue for the latter.

Have blog readers, any thoughts as to other "observables?"

Thursday, August 20, 2020

UAP Task Force to be created

On 14 August 2020, the US Department of Defense issued a media release titled "Establishment of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force." This read:

"On Aug. 4, 2020 Deputy Secretary of Defense David L. Norquist approved the establishment of an Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP) Task Force (UAPTF.) The Department of Navy, under the cognizance of the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security, will lead the UAPTF. 

The Department of Defense established the UAPTF to improve its understanding of, and gain insights into, the nature and origins of UAPs. The mission of the Task Force is to detect, analyze and catalogue UAPs that could potentially pose a threat to U.S. national security.

As DOD has stated previously, the safety of our personnel and the security of our operations are of paramount concern. The Department of Defense and the military departments take any incursions by unauthorized aircraft into our training ranges or designated airspace very seriously and examine each report. This includes examinations of incursions that are initially reported as UAP when the observer cannot immediately identify what he or she is observing."

Some comments

1. If the UAPTF was only approved for creation on 4 August 2020, what has the multi-agency group (MAG) mentioned previously; the successor to AATIP, been doing?  Will the MAG cease, or will there now be a MAG and the UAPTF? This is unclear from the DOD statement.

2. It is now completely crystal clear that the Department of Navy will lead the UAPTF. Previously it was mentioned that specifically the Office for Naval  Intelligence (ONI) will be the lead.

3. Where is the United States Air Force (USAF) in all of this? Presumably the USAF will have representation on the UAPTF?

4. In a blog post dated 27 July 2020, titled "An analysis of the latest Department of Defense statement on UAPs"  I queried the use of a number of terms in the mission of the UAPTF, e.g. "detect" and "exploit." In a comment to that blog post, reader "John Doe" reminded me that these terms are used from the perspective of the US military.  John Doe's interpretation is that you destroy a threat, then examine the pieces for technological knowledge. Thus the use of the words "consolidate" and "exploit." A military usage of the word "exploit" would be "Taking full advantage of any information that has come to hand for tactical, operational or strategic purposes." 

5. Kudos to To The Stars Academy of Arts & Sciences, and specifically Luis Elizondo, for their work behind the scenes, in undertaking actions which has led to the formation of the UAPTF.

Update: 4 September 2020

Swedish researcher Roger Glassel was able to get Pentagon spokesperson Susan Gough to address this question. Glassel's questions and Gough's answers may be read at https://www.blueblurrylines.com/2020/09/uap-task-force-pentagon-responds-to.html


Monday, July 27, 2020

An analysis of the latest Department of Defense statement on UAP

Office of Naval Intelligence

In a blog post dated 9 July 2020, titled "Is the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) now part of the AATIP effort?" I explored that possibility. Now, in July 2020, we know that the ONI is indeed heavily involved.

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

Part of report 116-233 from the U.S. Congress Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, dated 17 June 2020, stated:

"The Committee supports the effort of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force at the Office of Naval Intelligence, to standardise collection and reporting on unidentified aerial phenomenon, any links they have to adversarial foreign governments and the threat that they pose to U.S. military assets and installations."

Department of Defense statement

Popular Mechanics magazine posted an article on their website dated 24 July 2020, by Andrew Daniels, which discussed the recent New York Times article on UAP, and various aspects of recent reporting on the topic.

Popular Mechanics sought and received, a statement from the Department of Defense, issued by spokesperson Susan Gough, and then updated their digital article with parts of that statement. However, researcher Nick Pope sought and obtained the full text of that statement, and it is worthwhile reproducing this in full.

"As we have said previously, the Department of Defense and all of the military departments take any incursions by unauthorized aircraft into our training ranges or designated airspace very seriously, and examine every report. This includes examinations of incursions that are initially reported as "unidentified aerial phenomena" (UAP) when the observer cannot immediately identify what he or she is observing.

Thorough examinations of any incursions into our training ranges or designated airspace often involves assessments from across the department, and, as appropriate, consultation with other U.S. government departments and agencies. The safety of our personnel and the security of our operations is of paramount concern. To protect our people and maintain operations security, which includes not providing information that may be useful to our adversaries, DOD does not discuss publicly the details of either observations or the examination of reported incursions into our training ranges or designated airspace, including those incursions initially designated as UAP.

Regarding the task force mentioned in the article, I can say that the department is creating a task force to gain knowledge and insight into the nature and origins of UAPs, as well as their operations, capabilities, performance, and/or signatures. The mission of the task force will be to detect, analyze, catalog, consolidate, and exploit non-traditional aerospace vehicles/UAPs posing an operational threat to U.S. national security and avoid strategic surprise."

Analysis of the statement

1. "...incursions of unauthorized aircraft..."

The DOD has consistently utilised this phrasing of "unauthorized aircraft" when speaking of incursions; as opposed to the terms "drones;" "unmanned aerial systems;" "unmanned aerial vehicles;" etc. Thus, downplaying the suggestion that the incursions are possibly due to other than terrestrial vehicles.

2. "...into our training ranges or designated airspace..."

As we know, there have been reported observations due to incursions into DOD training ranges off both the east and west coasts of the United States. However, I note that "designated airspace" could refer to any part of the U.S., not just training ranges.

3. "This includes examinations of incursions that are initially reported as "unidentified aerial phenomena" (UAP) when the observer cannot immediately identify what he or she is observing."

This, to me, implies that they will be examing reported observations of both "unauthorized aircraft" and "Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon," seemingly differentiating  between these two things. A report of a drone like object with wings travelling at sub-sonic speed, is a different thing from a white, Tic tac like object travelling at hypersonic speeds.

4. "...consultation with other U.S. government departments and agencies."

Hence the fact that it is a Task Force; i.e. a group of individuals from various agencies, coordinated by one specific agency; in this case the ONI.

5. "To protect our people and maintain operations security, which includes not providing information that may be useful to our adversaries, DOD does not discuss publicly the details of either observations or the examination of reported incursions into our training ranges or designated airspace, including those incursions initially designated as UAP."

This is consistent with earlier public DOD statements that no details of incursions, and their investigation will be made public. From an operation security perspective, this makes perfect sense. If you announce that you have detected an unknown object at 120,000 feet from a particular radar system you tell an enemy that your radar has at least this range. However, it seems to me that ONI could release some details to the public, e.g. number of observations in a specific time period; some description of what was seen, and whether or not their investigation revealed a cause; or that after a detailed examination of all the data, an observation remains in the UAP category.

6. "I can say that the department is creating a task force."

Luis Elizondo has referred to the fact that AATIP or its successor is already/still in place. Does this mean that the Task Force is already in place, or as the DOD statement says, is being "created?"

7.  "The mission of the task force will be to detect, analyze, catalog, consolidate, and exploit non-traditional aerospace vehicles/UAPs posing an operational threat to U.S. national security and avoid strategic surprise."

a. "detect"

Now, this to me, is an interesting word used in this context. I would have expected the Task Force's first job would be to collect observations and then take a look at that data. However, the DOD statement specifically says "detect." Does this imply that the Task Force, themselves will be out there actively seeking to observe the objects intruding on U.S. training ranges and designated airspace. This is very different from collecting observations from other people.

b. "Analyze"

Once you have collected data, either from your own sources or that of others, naturally you wish to analyze them. Recall, though that this has already been undertaken by AATIP, where Elizondo refers to the five observables that they have drawn out of their data. Will the Task Force merely be reinventing the wheel, or will this analyze bring something fresh to the table?

c. "consolidate"

Another unusual word to use, consolidate what|? Usually you collect, consolidate/collate, then analyze. I am not sure what consolidate means when used in the order detect, analyze, collate, consolidate.

d. "exploit"

Exploit what? Information gained from the anlsysis? To do what, use the data to build your own UAP?

e. "...non-traditional aerospace vehicles/UAPs"

So, is this an admission that the DOD already knows that some of the incursions are in fact due to "non-traditional aerospace vehicles?

f. "...and avoid strategic surprise."

A reasonable concept, avoid being surprised by advanced aerospace vehicles which you don't. yourself possess.

Other comments

The statement does not describe the composition of the Task Force, other than that it is headed by ONI. Does it have representation from the USAF? NORAD? etc.

All in all, as per past DOD statements on UAP, the contents of the statement, raises more questions than it answers.

Thursday, July 9, 2020

Did The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee prepare a contribution to SNIE 1-61-E?

Background 

A number of issues have been raised by various researchers, e.g. Paul Dean, Douglas D Johnson, and myself; concerning the 1961 document, titled "Critical Aspects of Unidentified Flying Objects and the Nuclear Threat to the Defense of the United States and Allies,"  numbered Special National Intellegence (sic) Estimate (SNIE) 1-61-E, which has been much discussed on social media of late. For ease of discussion here, I will simply refer to this document as the 1961 document.

Introduction

The 1961 document states that it was prepared by four different bodies, namely:

* NSA Scientific Advisory Board (NSASAB)

* Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee (JAEIC)

* The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee (GMAIC)

* The Scientific Intelligence Committee (SIC.)

CIA CREST documents

Now, upon checking various documents available on the CIA CREST website, I determined that the GMAIC, amongst other things, at their meetings, considered draft contributions to NIEs and SNIEs; revised the drafts, approved them, and then sent them to the Office of National Estimates (ONE.)

As an example, at the 19 April 1961 meeting, the GMAIC minutes of that meeting recorded:

"ITEM 1 SNIE 22-61

The Committee considered a draft contribution to SNIE 22-61 which had been prepared by [redacted word/s] ad hoc working group. The draft was revised, approved and forwarded to ONE as the GMAIC contribution to SNIE 22-61."

Reviewing the minutes of various GMAIC meetings held between 1 March 1961 and 19 December 1961 [the 1961 document stated that it was "Completed on 5 November 1961"] I noted numerous references to the GMAIC reviewing drafts of SNIE 11-4-61; NIE 11-5-61 and NIE 11-8/1-61; revising them; approving them and forwarding them on to ONE. Such was the process in 1961.

So, if the GMAIC did have a hand in preparing the 1961 document; one would expect to be able to find a reference to it in the minutes of a 1961 GMAIC meeting.

An inspection of the minutes of 23 GMAIC meetings held between 1 March 1961 and 19 December 1961; failed to find any reference to the 1961 document; either by number, title, or subject matter.

I did note that, out of the minutes from these 23 meetings I reviewed, that there were a few totally redacted agenda items. Some could argue that the reference to the 1961 document would be found in these redacted items. However, the other 99% of the agenda items are freely readable, so statistically I feel that the chances of a redacted agenda item being about the 1961 document is rather slim. I mention this for transparency of my argument.

Naturally, I would be delighted if any blog reader can locate a CIA document from the 1961 minutes of a GMAIC meeting which provides clear reference to the 1961 document.

Monday, July 6, 2020

Bob McGwier provides further information about his knowledge of the Wilson/Davis notes


Background

On 5 July 2020, U.S. researcher Joe Murgia, drew our attention to a comment made by Dr. Bob McGwier, on the Facebook page of "Spaced Our Radio" host, Dave Scott. In a reply to another person, commenting about the Wilson/Davis notes, Dr. McGwier said:



"That is not the most interesting thing I've read. The most interesting thing I've read is contemporaneous mail from Thomas Wilson to someone else confirming the meeting and the content of the meeting BEFORE it was widely distributed..."

I later revisited that same Facebook page and found an additional comment from Dr. McGwier, which read:

"I believe there is sufficient evidence that the meeting was held and I cannot figure out what Eric Davis would get from lying. I lean towards accepting the meeting and the contents which are still unverified because we want the SAPs not just their existence."

Dr. McGwier provides more information

Joe, then provided a transcript of a short Facebook Messenger conversation he had with Dr. McGwier. This included the statement, by McGwier, that he knew Admiral Wilson through the Institute for Defense Analyses. For more information on this Institute please see further down in this blog. His short conversation raised further questions in my mind, so I reached out to Dr. McGwier, myself, and he kindly responded to my queries. With his permission, I provide the questions and answers, for the further information of blog readers.

Q1. Was the communication from Wilson to someone else, an email, a letter or some other form of communication? Which?

A1. Mail.

Q2. What were the circumstances which allowed you to see this communication?

A2. Happenstance, seredipitous, synchronicity? I was doing work in the intelligence community and a friend been sent the mail. He showed it to me and told me what he thought it meant. I could never forget Admiral Wilson. So this is a personal confidence but did not come from Wilson. I didn't think about it again until this all blew up again.

Q3. You mentioned to Joe that you thought this was in 2004/2005. However, where specificially were you when you saw the communication?

A3. Inside a USG government facility. The person was concerned that the mail might be classified. It may be.

Q4. At the time what were your thoughts upon seeing the contents of the communication?

A4. At that point in time I was a hard nosed scientist acting regularly as an Engineer/MacGayver in the US government and I thought it was probably crap. I put it out of my mind until recently.

Q5. What can you recall about the contents of the communication?

A5. Wilson was complaining about programs dealing with UFOs and crashes that he didn't have access to.

Q6. Do you recall who the receipient of the communication was?

A6. Yes. I do recall. That is what I am protecting for the time being.

Who is Bob McGwier?

His LinkedIn profile, provides a great deal of information about his career. I particularly note the following:

* Founder and Technical Adviser of HawkEye 360. September 2015 to the present

* Director of Research, Hume Center and Research Professor of ECE, Virginia Polytechnic . 2011 to the present

* Between 1984 and June 2011 he was a Member of Research Staff at the Center for Communications Research, Princeton, NJ, at the Institute for Defense Analyses where he worked on research for the U.S. Department of Defense.

Where was he when he saw the communication?

In his short communication with Joe Murgia, Dr. McGwier stated that at the time "In late 2004 or early 2005, I went embedded at U.S. government entities that IDA worked for." IDA is short for the Institute for Defense Analyses. Its website states that:

"The Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) is a private, nonprofit corporation headquartered in Alexandria, Virginia, just outside Washington DC. IDA's mission is to answer the most challenging U.S.security and science policy questions with objective analysis leveraging extraordinary scientific, technical and analytic expertise."

The Center for Communications Research  website states, in part, that:

"The two Centers employ more than 70 PhD. mathematicians and computer scientists, working on poroblems in cryptography, cryptanalysis, algorithms, high-performance computing, information processing, signal processing, and network security, as well as related areas of pure and applied mathematics."

It should be noted that Dr. McGwier's professional qualifications include:

* 1975-1977. Bs. Mathematics, Electrical Engineering, Auburn University

* 1980-1984. PhD. Applied Mathematics, Brown University.

What are his UAP interests?

On 10 March 2020, Dr. McGwier appeared on Fade to Black on the Jimmy Church show   Here, Dr.McGwier discussed the use of computer technology in the field of UFO detection. Dr.McGwier is a participant in the Sky Hub project, which is a crowd sourced, open-source public project. The Sky Hub website states that coming soon is a "A world wide, public search for UAPs using a global network of machine-learning, smart cameras and sensor arrays built by you using our opensource software." 

Wednesday, July 1, 2020

"A Special National Intelligence Estimate" - 1961 - Part 2

Introduction

Yesterday, I posted a piece about "A Special National Intelligence Estimate" - 1961, which has recently resurfaced. This blog post provides additional information, to enable the reader to decide for themselves on the question of whether or not it is a genuine document.

Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board




The 1961 document, on the front page, states that it was prepared for "The President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board." According to the White House website , today:

"The President's Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB), with its component Intelligence Oversight Board (IOB), is an independent element within the Executive Office of the President. For more than six decades the PIAB has offered the President expert advice on the conduct of U.S. intelligence. Throughout its history, the board has closely guarded its special status by making every effort to ensure the strict confidentiality of its deliberations and communications, and the objectivity of its advice. As a result, the Board has had immense and long-lasting impacts on the structure, management, and operations of U.S. intelligence."

History of the Board

In 1956, President Eisenhower established the President's Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence. In May 1961, under President John F. Kennedy, the name changed to The President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. President George W. Bush changed its name to the current President's Intelligence Advisory Board. So by 5 November 1961, when the 1961 document said it was completed, the name was as per the 1961 document, i.e. The President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board.

I found reference to a couple of books about the Board, namely:

Absher, K.M., Desch, M. C. & Popadiuk, R. 2010. "The President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board." Oxford Press. Oxford.

Absher, K. M., Desch, M. C. & Popadiuk, R. 2012. "Privileged and Confidential: The Secret History of the President's Intelligence Advisory Board." Uni. of  Kentucky.

Interestingly, the blurb for the 2012 book says, among other things, that:

 " ... is a committee that meets behind locked doors and leaves its paper trail in classified files. The President's Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB) is one of the most secretive and potentially influential segments of the US Intelligence Community." It would seem like the chances of locating the 1961 document in archives of the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board are slim.

 Who was the SNIE ultimately aimed at?

So, by submitting a "Special National Intelligence Estimate" to the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board, you were effectively providing advice that might then by relayed to the President.

Can we find a record of the 1961 document in the archives of the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board? As I mentioned in yesterday's blog post, I went to the J. F. Kennedy Library and Museum website and typed in the words "Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board." I examined the several hundred response titles, but found no reference to the 1961 document.

Readers of yesterday's blog, may recall that the 1961 document, on page 2, under "Basis for action" stated that the document was responding "In pursuant to Presidential National Security Action Memorandum No. 70..." which I found a copy of, and that it related to issues with NATO about Berlin. It is logical that if the President issued a NSAM No. 70, that the response would go back through the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board for relay to the President. However, it should be noted that NSAM No. 70 was not about UFOs.

TOP SECRET UMBRA

The 1961 document has the words "TOP SECRET UMBRA" on it. "TOP SECRET" is of course a security classification. "UMBRA" was one of three codewords placed after the words "TOP SECRET," indicating a level of sensitivity. "UMBRA" was used for the highest level of sensitivity (category 3.) According to one website I consulted  the use of "UMBRA" terminated in 1999. So, the question is, was "TOP SECRET UMBRA" in use in 1961?

I checked with researcher and author Tim McMillan, who advised me that "UMBRA didn't come into existence until 1968." To fact check this, I turned to the definitive work on the US intelligence community, namely Jeffrey T Richelson's book "The U.S. Intelligence Community" 2015. epub. On page 744 I found the following:

"For many years Special Intelligence contained three primary compartments indicating different levels of sensitivity - UMBRA, SPOKE and MORAY- whose sensitivity was indicated by the prefixes attached to each codeword: TOP SECRET for UMBRA, and SECRET for SPOKE and MORAY. UMBRA, beginning in 1968, became the successor to the post World War II SI codewords..."

In a 22 June 2020 blog post on UFOjoe.net Dr. Eric Davis has this to say about the question:

"Regarding the Umbra stamp, I don't care to get into debates with people that don't know how the government works now or in the past. Classified documents get different markings applied to them over time as part of a reclassification/declassification review process."

Foreign Broadcasting Information Service

One of Paul Dean's points in his recent blog on the 1961 document was that page 2 of the 1961 document refers to the FBIS, which Paul says is the Foreign Broadcast Information Service which did not exist in 1961. He stated, based on a document he found, that in that year it was named the Foreign Broadcast Information Division (FBID). Only in 1965 was it renamed the Foreign Broadcast Information Service.

However, US researcher Douglas D. Johnson contacted Paul and I, to say that he had found a CIA document dated 1 April 1959 which was used the words "Foreign Broadcasting Information Service" in its title, and a second CIA document dated 1 December 1960 which again used the words "Foreign Broadcasting Information Service" in its title. I found that there were numerous examples of CIA "Foreign Broadcasting Information Service" documents from 1961. Thus the use of the term FBIS in the 1961 document is not unusual.

Final words for today

I hope that the contents of yesterday's and today's blogs, will provide better information upon which to basis a judgement as to whether or not, the 1961 document is genuine.

I note from Joe Murgia's blog posts about this matter, that at least one person, Dr. Eric Davis indicates that he is aware of the author of the SNIE. In Davis' own words: "The author of the Nov. 1961 SNIE was a nuclear SME who served a TDY at the AEC in the late-50s."

In a 27 June 2020 update to his 22 June 2020 blog post, Joe Murgia wrote:

"I heard from the source earlier today and he gave me further details on how the document was authenticated and his opinion on the work of a few in UFOlogy. He saw the original SNIE in an office he was a consultant to at a 3-letter agency concerning non-human, non-terrestrial, non-natural UAPs. My source knows who the author of the SNIE is and his job title at the agency."

I hope Joe is able to provide us with further clarification on the "consultant to at a 3-letter agency concerning non-human, non-terrestrial, non-natural UAPs." That certainly sounds very intriguing.

Updates 2 July 2020

1. I received a further communication from US researcher Douglas D. Johnson. He noted that the 1 April 1959 and 1 December 1960 CIA documents which he sent me, (links provided above) were issued under the "OFFICIAL USE ONLY" marking. He went on to say that "This is not a classification, but it does indicate that these publications were intended for use within the government, not for public release."  He went on to say "The Foreign Broadcast entity was placed within the CIA in September 1947. Paul Dean had relied in part on a 1952 memo (attached) on "FBIS History," the writer of which explained that as a "subterfuge" to conceal the FBID's connection to the CIA, "all overt publications, material published abroad, etccetera" was attributed to Foreign Broadcast Information SERVICE, without reference to the CIA, but that internal government documents employed the technically correct then Foreign Broadcast Information DIVISION. Yet the documents I found (I expect there are many others out there) show that this distinction was no longer being observed by 1959, but this point is lost unless you note that they were marked OFFICIAL USE ONLY."

2. US researcher and archivist Barry Greenwood, undertook a search through his digital copy of the website where Dr. Robert M. Wood, and Ryan S. Wood,  had archived their document collection. He was unable to locate a copy of the 1961 document, amongst that collection.

Update 5 July 2020

I received a further communication from US researcher Douglas D. Johnson, which read as follows:

Over the past couple of weeks, Joe Murgia, on his blog and on Twitter (blog at UFOJoe.net; @UFOJoe11on Twitter) has promoted the authenticity of a four-page document that purports to be a "Special National Intelligence Estimate" (SNIE), titled "Critical Aspects of Unidentified Flying Objects and the Nuclear Threat to the Defense of the United States and Allies."  The document presents itself as the product of "U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY AND MJTWELVE OPERATIONS."  It also contains the notations "No. 1-61-E" and "Completed on 5 November 1961."

In a June 22 blog post, found at http://www.ufojoe.net/umbra-hoyt, Joe Murgia wrote:
I believe it to be a legitimate document because of the following:  An independent source with the appropriate security clearances and need-to-know access had authenticated and validated the Nov. 1961 SNIE with several SIS-level authorities at the U.S. government agency that owns it, so this document is not any hoax or forgery. (SIS = Senior Intelligence Service ~Joe) And the same source added this little tidbit: The author of this SNIE report has a documented history of leaving various, uncorrected typos in their final reports. What?! That piece of information might just be my favorite part of this entire story!!! That tells you just how thorough this source (and others like him/her) are with this material. They need to make sure before they put their reputation behind it. And I realize it’s an anonymous source but I know who they are and I have no doubt this document is legitimate.

In a June 27 update (same URL) Murgia wrote:
I heard from the source earlier today and he gave me further details on how the document was authenticated and his opinion on the work of a few in UFOlogy.  He saw the original SNIE in an office he was a consultant to at a 3-letter agency concerning non-human, non-terrestrial, non-natural UAPs. My source knows who the author of the SNIE is and his job title at the agency. Various researchers in UFOlogy literally have no clue what is what in the pre-1970s black programs world. Their point-by-point arguments are wrong because they don’t know the context and precedence behind the SNIE. It is not a Doty document and it is not a James Jesus Angleton document, nor is it a Bill Cooper document. My source saw the original SNIE at the agency and received verification of its authenticity from agency leadership and archivists during official briefings on non-terrestrial UAP events. The SNIE author is long-ago retired.

Paul James Dean and Keith Basterfield have published blog posts that discussed multiple problematic or questionable aspects of the 1-61-E document:

http://ufos-documenting-the-evidence.blogspot.com/

https://ufos-scientificresearch.blogspot.com/2020/07/a-special-national-intelligence.html

I previously have contributed a few small comments on and supplements to the Paul Dean and Keith Basterfield blog posts. Yesterday I obtained a several additional items that I think pertinent, which I will now proceed to interject into the discussion.

(1)  I've obtained the attached 8-page National Security Council document [imaged below - KB] that was issued January 24, 1964 with a SECRET classification.  It was declassified over 30 years later. (I think that the handwritten declassification date is 4-14-97, but the marking is somewhat unclear.) The document is a "list [that] includes all National Intelligence Estimates published since 1961 [i.e., 1961 through 1963, inclusive] which IL [the NSC Information Liaison] considers still generally useful..."  The list includes Special National Intelligence Estimates as well as NIEs. The purported November 5, 1961 UFO-nuke SNIE is not on this originally classified list, nor is any similar topic listed.



(2)  Some (probably most) of the NIEs and SNIEs that appear on the January 24, 1964 NSC list have since been declassified, albeit with redactions in some cases.  In order to provide a basis for comparison with the Murgia-promoted UFO-nuke document, I am attaching [first three pages imaged below - KB] one of the then-most-recent listed NIEs -- "Soviet Capabilities for Strategic Attack," issued Oct. 18, 1963.  This Oct. 18, 1963 NIE was issued as TOP SECRET CONTROLLED DISSEM.  The third page of the document was a memo from the Director of Central Intelligence that specified that "no revelation of its existence [may] be made to unauthorized persons." Despite this tight control, the title of this NIE appears on the Jan. 1964 NSC list, even though the list itself was classified at the less restrictive level of SECRET.  (On the list, the Oct. 18, 1963 NIE was marked as "RD only" --"RD" meaning "Restricted Data," the term applied to certain specially controlled nuclear-related information, not to be confused with the low-level "restricted" category of classification.)





(3)  Yesterday, I consulted an academic historian with extensive expertise in the history of the Intelligence Community (and, so far as I could tell, no previous involvement in UFO-related controversies).  This individual did not directly examine the 1-61-E document -- which, after all, is presented as still being highly classified -- but did review Murgia's two statements that I have quoted in total above, summarizing what Murgia reported that the anonymous "independent source" says about the origins of 1-61-E.  This is verbatim the nub of what the expert historian told me:
[If authentic, the purported SNIE] would appear on the lists of NIEs and SNIEs that are in the files.  Government offices continually indexed estimates.  We know of many NIEs only through their appearance in an index, since the document itself has not been released....Intelligence estimates have no 'author'.  They are consensus documents to which many whole agencies each add their snippet of text.  There are CIA analysts who brag for the rest of their career that they got to write a few words in an estimate.  SNIEs appear only after a long trail of paper, proposals, correspondence, drafts, etc.  There’s never an SNIE all on its own.  The procedure is this:  the Office of National Estimates issues a request, including details of what to be included and a deadline, and parcels out responsibilities to different agencies.  The agencies then assemble committees and prepare their parts.  The different parts then go for review to all of the other agencies.  Then you get to full drafts, which are circulated.  So if a person claims to know the 'author' of an SNIE you can be sure that person has never had a job in intelligence.

(4)  The expert historian also directed me to a CIA historical document, originally written and classified SECRET in 1965 and 1976, which may be instructive.  Note especially the second link, which lists the steps that were involved in the preparation of a National Intelligence Estimate during that era.

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/5law.html

https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/making.html

(5)  I realize that the specialist historian's assessment regarding the claims of Murgia's anonymous "independent source" may be discounted by some, even though this falls squarely within that historian's field of expertise, because the historian also wishes to remain anonymous.  I encourage anyone interested in this subject to locate persons not connected with ufology, with suitable expertise in the history of the production of National Intelligence Estimates, and/or in assessing the forensic attributes of purportedly classified or once-classified documents, to obtain independent assessments.

I have additional thoughts regarding the actual substantive content of the 1-61-E document -- if limited to a single adjective, I would choose "incoherent" -- but I will defer those comments to another occasion.

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

"A Special National Intelligence Estimate" - 1961


Introduction

A document titled " A Special National Intelligence Estimate" no. 1-61-E, completed on 5 November 1961, titled "Critical Aspects of Unidentified Flying Objects and the Nuclear Threat to the Defense of the United States and Alllies" has been circulating on the Internet for some time; possibly quite a long time.

Its origins

Where did the document first surface? It seems that it first came to light here. On that website, the introduction states "To our knowledge this is not on any Web Page except this one. Originally leaked to Tim Cooper and sent by Bob Wood, thanks to both." This site, ufoconspiracy.com, provides links to the four page document. It also states "In 2000 Washington DC OSI sources according to Rick Doty verified this document as real, but is a retype of the original." There is an 8 August 2000 email from Doty to Wood referring to a number of documents. In part, it states: "Document #5- Restricted Data Atomic Energy Act of 1954. This document is authentic based on a source document contained in a government file. This document was retyped from its original." The document has a "Received July 21 2000" rubber stamp on it.

In recent times, however, this 1961 document, has generated much discussion, both pro and against.  It is not my intention to enter into any discussion for or against the genuineness of this document, simply to analyze part of the contents, to see if we can gain further insight into it. For the purposes of clarity, when I am speaking of this document, I will use the label "the 1961 document."

Images of the document








Basis for action

Page 2 of the document, is headed "Basis for action" and starts off with the words,  "In pursuant to Presidential National Security Action Memorandum No. 70..." I wondered what this memorandum was about?

I found a copy of the Memorandum is held at the J. F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum website. The folder description states:

This folder contains copies of National Security Action Memorandum number 70 (NSAM70) to Secretary of State Dean Rusk and Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara from President John F. Kennedy requesting a report on Berlin and progress in obtaining a committment from NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies for an increase in military forces."

The actual document is four pages long, I image these pages below:






You immediately notice that there are two copies of the Memorandum, one signed copy is dated 15 August 1961, and the other, unsigned one, labelled "copy" is dated 15 August 1962. The third document, signed by Taylor is dated 18 August 1961.

So, if this Memorandum dated 15 August 1961 was one of the bases for the production of the 1961 document, then obviously, the action, in terms of a report of some kind would be dated later than 15 August 1961. The 1961 document stated that it was completed on 5 November 1961.

The second "Basis for Action" mentioned on  page 2 is "...and a separate action item levied against the DCI for the production of an SNIE regarding what information concerning unidentified flying objects has been collected and evauluated in the context of nuclear war possibilities."

Can we find such an "action item?"

I wondered if it were possible to find such an action tasked of the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency? I therefore went to the CIA CREST website  Here I used a range of keywords searching the CREST database, including unidentified flying objects; nuclear war possibilities; SNIE; Special National Intelligence Estimate, etc. I found no such action item. That doesn't mean there isn't such a document, just that I could not find it in CREST. I also looked on the wider Internet, for documentation about this second basis for action, but was unable to locate anything relevant.

DCID 5/1

The 1961 document then goes on to say "DCID 5/1 was authorized by the USIB."

Now, DCID stands for a Director of Central Intelligence Directive, and USIB stands for United States Intelligence Board.

A search of the CIA CREST website for DCID 5/1 found a heading "Compilation of Intelligence Directives" and a document labelled "Compilation of Intelligence Directives" dated 4 March 1980,  Here DCID 5/1 has the title "Coordination of US Clandestine Foreign Intelligence and Counterintelligence Activities Abroad."

A further CIA document dated 22 March 1960  states that DCID 5/1 was issued on 15 September 1958, and states "The net effect of the news series is to increase the degree of control over military clandestine intelligence activities by the DCI's representitives in the field."

The 1961 (completed on 5 November 1961) document appears to be saying that DCID 5/1 was authorized in connection with the 1961 "basis for action." However, DCID 5/1 was issued on 15 September 1958, three years earlier.

What is an NIE and SNIE?

Let us return to basics. What was a National Intelligence Estimate and what was a Special National Intelligence Estimate? Below, I image a National Intelligence Estimate dated 5 October 1961.

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000261335.pdf


 An NIE was a document submitted by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, which was concurred in by the United States Intelligence Board, for distribution to various places. A Special National Intelligence Estimate had the same purpose. Below I image a copy of a SNIE from 25 April 1961.

https://www.cia.gov/library/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000272879.pdf
Again, SNIEs were submitted by the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and concurred by the USIB for distribution to various places. The distribution for the above SNIE was The White House, National Security Council, Deparment of State, Department of Defense, Atomic Energy Commission and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Below is an image of the front cover of the 1961 document.


It is clearly different from a NIE or SNIE submitted by the Director of Central Intelligence, in a number of ways, e.g. CIA NIEs and SNIEs are numbered, yet the 1961 document has a letter in its numbering system, i.e. 1-61-E; that titles of CIA NIEs and SNIEs are always in capital letters, not so with the 1961 document. Yet the 1961 document states it is "A Special National Intelligence Estimate."

I used the CIA CREST website to look for a SNIE with the same title, contents etc. of the 1961 document, but failed to find any reference to such an SNIE.

So, can anyone else issue an NIE or SNIE?

The 1961 document itself states that it was prepared by:

NSA Scientific Advisory Board (NSASAB)

Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee (JAEIC)

The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee  (GMAIC)

The Scientific Intelligence Committee. (SIC)

For the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board.

I went to the website for the J F Kennedy Library and Museum and looked at the available documents there, concerning the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. There were 438 records revealed, but there was no sign of a copy of the 1961 document in that collection.

Points from Paul Dean's blog

1. Page 2 of the 1961 document refers to JRDB specialists. Paul states this is The Joint Research and Development Board and says this went out of existence in 1948-1949, to be replaced by the Research and Development Board which was itself, abolished in 1953. I found a history of the Board. 

2. Page 2 of the 1961 document mentions both JNEIC and JAEIC. Paul says that The Joint Nuclear Energy Intelligence Committee was replaced by the Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee in 1948, and that only the JAEIC existed in 1961. I found a document dated October 1949 where the JNEIC makes an estimate. So it was still in existence in 1949. I also found another CIA document which shows that the JAEIC was in existence in January 1961. So, regardless of exactly what year the JNEIC changed to the JAEIC, it appears that there was only the JAEIC in November 1961, when the 1961 document was issued.

3. Page 2 of the 1961 document mentions the DD/O. Paul takes this to refer to the CIA's Deputy Director for Operations. CIA's Directorate for Operations didn't exist until 1973. In 1961 it was the Directorate for Plans, and the Deputy Director would have been refered to as DD/P.



4. Page two of the 1961 document also refers to the FBIS which Paul says is the Foreign Broadcast Information Service which did not exist in 1961. In that year, it was named the Foreign Broadcast Information Division (FBID.)  In 1965 it was renamed the Foreign Broadcast Information Service.



5. On page 4 of the 1961 document there is mention of LANL. Paul says this is a reference to The Las Alamos National Laboratory but says that in 1961, its name was the Las Alamos Scientific Laboratory (LASL.)  In  1981 LASL officially became LANL. In an email to Joe Murgia, Dr. Eric Davis disputes this, and explains why LANL could be found in a document from 1961. The critical part of this email is that Davis says "The author of the Nov. 1961 SNIE was a nuclear SME who served a TDY at the AEC in the late-50s and was thus fully exposed to LASL scenior scientists and management's use of LANL in some of the documents." I believe SME refes to "subject matter expert;" TDY is a "tour of duty;" and AEC is the Atomic Energy Commission.

6. DCID 5/1 issued December 1959. Paul states that it had nothing to do with UFOs, as I have indicated above.

7. NASM70 issued August 1961. Paul says this has nothing to do with UFOs. I explored this earlier in this post.

8. The document has been sitting online for a long time at  https://archive.org/details/MSA-MJ12 which was owned by "Peregrine Commuincation" which Paul says involved Robert M. Collins; Richard C. Doty and Timothy Cooper.

In summary, Paul is indicating that there are items mentioned in the1961 document, which should not be in a genuine 1961 document.

A closing aside

The 1961 document title page contains the words "MJTWELVE," and page 2 refers to CIA MJTWELVE consultants" and later, "MJTWELVE advisory group," which has rung alarm bells with a number of researchers, due to an intense debate which ran for many years about the genuiness or otherwise of a number of documents about MJ12.

Was there ever a "real" US government MJ12 group? I draw the readers' attention to an entry in Jacques Vallee's "Forbidden Science: Volume 3" page 349, dated 23 October 1988, which refers to a discussion between Vallee and Christopher (Kit) Green, which reads:

"He assured me that there was indeed an MJ-12, which had employed the list of scientists quoted by the ufologists, including Menzel, and that it had reported to Truman and Eisenhower. But that project had nothing to do with UFOs; it was a vast program to study impacts and possible reaction against a psychological warfare attack directed at the United States. The story is right out of my novel Alintel. This version of MJ-12 still exists, he conceeded when I pressed him. Someone has been spinning it through the UFO rumour mill as part of the government Alien coverup, but what is the purpose of this manipulation?"

In conclusion

Having set out all of the above, I will leave it to the discerning reader to examine the data in an unbiased way, and form their own opinion on this 1961 document. I welcome points of correction; clarification; et. as I grapple to understand the contents of the 1961 document.


Thursday, June 25, 2020

The benefits of networking


Sighting in the Timor Sea

The other day, US researcher Jan Aldrich of Project 1947 fame, sent me an email containing details about a sighting in my part of the world.

The source was "UFO Depiction Published 11:35am 9/18/2010." The text read:

"I would like to submit the following sighting of an object at night over the Timor Sea. [The Timor Sea is bounded to the north by the island of Timor, to the east by the Arafura Sea, and to the south by Australia- KB.] Perhaps there is a known explanation (e.g. space re-entry) in which case I would like to know, or maybe there is another sighting of a similar object on that night?

Date & Time: 6 September 2010 at 0215hrs (05-09-2010/1645hrs UTC.)

Position: Latitude 11 degrees 26.5 mins south; Longitude 128 degrees 09.8 mins east.

Ship heading: 107 (T) at 12 knots.

The object appeared to be a lozenge-shaped, bright orange light - possibly made up of a row of bright lights, with a slight, silvery tail that tapered to a point, approximately 6 times the length of the object.

The object appeared ahead of the ship at about 45 degrees on the starboard bow, and crossed ahead (right to left) to disappear behind cloud at about 60 degrees on the port bow (ie it was travelling more or less from south to north. The object appeared to travel in a straight horizontal path, at an elevation of about 40 degrees above the horizon.

The sighting lasted for about ten seconds, and the object was travelling VERY fast!!..."

To see what the witness thought were potential explanations, here is the source of the story. 

Possibility of space debris re-entry?

To check out the possibility of space debris re-entry, I reached out to Canadian amateur satellite re-entry expert Ted Molczan who maintains a watching brief on such things. Ted has published a lengthy list of "Visually Observed Natural Re-entries of Earth Satellites," which is available here.  Using this list you can check details of numerous satellite re-entries which have generated UAP reports since 1958.

Ted quickly responsed to my enquiry on the 2010 sighting.

"The short duration of the sighting tends to identify the cause as a meteor. The USAF did not predict the decay of any large objects on the date of the sighting. It does list a few small fragments of debris that decayed on or about that date, but my calculations show that none could have correlated with the sighting. Therefore, it was probably a meteor."

I wrote back and thanked Ted for taking the time to look at the possibility of a satellite re-entry. I concur with his conclusion.

I then advised Jan Aldrich of the potential explanation for the sighting.

This demonstrates the value of networking with other individuals, who have skill sets which I don't possess.

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

US Senate Select Committee report refers to Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

Introduction

Thanks to a lead provided to US researcher Danny Silva (original source Steve McDaniel) we have been made aware, of a Report 116-233, from the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, dated 17 June 2020, that refers to Unidentified Aerial Phenomena.

Details

Senator Marco Rubio. Source:https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/ 

The introduction to the Committee's report on a Bill, S3905, "Intelligence Authorization Act for fiscal year 2021" sponsored by Senator Marco Rubio, (Senator for the state of Florida) states:

"The Select Committee on Intelligence, having considered an original bill (S.3905) to authorize appropriations for fiscal year 2021 for intelligence and intelligence-related activities of the United States Government, the Intelligence Community Management Account, and the Central Intelligence Agency Retirement and Disability System, and for other purposes, reports favourably thereon and recommends that the bill do pass." So, they recommend the bill be turned into an Act, thereby authorizing the details contained in the bill (after debate) to be then law, and actionable.

UAP reference

Why are we interested in this bill? Well, under "Committee comments," in the Committee's report, we find the following:

"Advanced Aerial Threats

The Committee supports the efforts of the Unidentified Aerial Phenomenon Task Force at the Office of Naval Intelligence to standardize collection and reporting on unidentified aerial phenomenon, any links they have to adversarial foreign governments, and the threat they pose to U.S. military assets and installations.

However, the Committee remains concerned that there is no unified, comprehensive process within the Federal Government for collecting and analyzing intelligence on unidentified aerial phenomena, despite the potential threat. The Committee understands that the relevant intelligence may be sensitive; nevertheless, the Committee finds that the information sharing and coordination across the Intelligence Community has been inconsistent, and this issue has lacked attention from senior leaders.

Therefore, the Committee directs the DNI, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense and the heads of such other agencies as the Director and Secretary jointly consider relevant, to submit a report within 180 days of the date of enactment of the Act, to the congressional intelligence and armed services committees on unidentified aerial phenomena (also known as "anomalous aerial vehicles"), including observed airborne objects that have not been identified.

The Committee further directs the report to include:

1. A detailed analysis of unidentified aerial phenomena data and intelligence reporting collected or held by the Office of Naval Intelligence, including data and intelligence reporting held by the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force.

2. A detailed analysis of unidentified phenomena data collected by:
a. geospatial intelligence;
b. signals intelligence;
c. human intelligence, and
d. measurement and signals intelligence.

3. A detailed analysis of data of the FBI, which was derived from investigations of intrusions of unidentified aerial phenomena data over restricted United States airspace.

4. A detailed description of an interagency process for ensuring timely data collection and centralized analysis of all unidentified aerial phenomena reporting for the Federal Government, regardless of which service or agency acquired the information.

5. Identification of an official accountable for the process described in paragraph 4.

6. Identification of potential aerospace or other threats posed by the unidentified aerial phenomena to national security, and an assessment of whether this unidentified aerial phenomena activity may be attributed to one or more foreign adversaries.

7. Identification of any incidents or patterns that indicate a potential adversary may have achieved breakthrough aerospace capabilities that could put United States strategic or conventional forces at risk; and

8. Recommendations regarding increased collection of data, enhanced research and development, and additional funding and other resources.

The report shall be submitted in unclassified form, but may include a classified anex."

Analysis and comments

1. In a blog post dated 9 July 2019, I posed the question" Is the US Office of Naval Intelligence now part of the AATIP effort" and concluded that it was. 

2. On 6 July 2019, US researcher Danny Silva noted, that in Episode 6 of the "Unidentified" TV series, former Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program (AATIP) manager Luis Elizondo stated that:

"AATIP is no longer run by a single office. There's now several offices that are engaged in this effort...and it is being run with official blessing."

The Committee report provides the name " Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force" and places it at the Office of Naval Intelligence. The language the report uses, supports the notion that this Task Force is currently in existence, and appears to suggest that this may well be the new AATIP. The Committee comments include the words "and the threat they pose to U.S. military assets and installations" not just Naval assets. This is what you would expect from a Task Force which draws its members from various agencies. 

3. The main thrust of the Committee's comments, is a call for a detailed report within 180 days of the date of the enactment of the bill, and provides some fairly detailed things which are to be reported upon. Specifically, that it must include data held by the Task Force, which should therefore include data obtained by AATIP. Note that the report is to be unclassified. 

4. Interestingly, there is mention of the FBI - presumably the Federal Bureau of Investigation "A detailed analysis of data of the FBI, which was derived from investigations of intrusions of unidentified aerial phenomena data over restricted United States airspace." While I waa aware that the United States Air Force Office of Special Investigations did look into the release of the US Navy videos, I do not recall hearing of any FBI investigation. I'd appreciate hearing from any blog reader who knows more about this aspect.

5. The Committee also wishes to be provided with "A detailed description of an interagency process for timely data collection and centralized analysis of all unidentified aerial phenomena reporting for the Federal Government, regardless of which service or agency acquired the information." This requirement looks to provide a central point of contact for data, which can only be a good thing. 

6. Note, that there remains a perspective expressed that the phenomena may be due to foreign adversaries, although there have been strong indications that this is not the case, from a number of sources. 

7. Finally, the report must include recommendations for future action; such as collection, research, funding and resources. Note that there is no mention of fiscal year 2021 funding for any of this, in the bill, as funding for intelligence programs comes from separate Appropriations legislation. 

8. Of course, any of the above depends on the passge of the bill into law and an Act.

Nevertheless, a very interesting development, which to a large degree has been one of the main actions which To The Stars Academy of Arts & Science (TTSA) have been working on in the background. Kudos to them.

Update 23 June 2020

I have corrected parts of this blog following a comment in the blog's comment section. 

Japan and UAP

The Japan Times On 28 April 2020, an article appeared in "The Japan Times" titled "Pentagon officially releases military vid...