Thursday, July 9, 2020

Did The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee prepare a contribution to SNIE 1-61-E?

Background 

A number of issues have been raised by various researchers, e.g. Paul Dean, Douglas D Johnson, and myself; concerning the 1961 document, titled "Critical Aspects of Unidentified Flying Objects and the Nuclear Threat to the Defense of the United States and Allies,"  numbered Special National Intellegence (sic) Estimate (SNIE) 1-61-E, which has been much discussed on social media of late. For ease of discussion here, I will simply refer to this document as the 1961 document.

Introduction

The 1961 document states that it was prepared by four different bodies, namely:

* NSA Scientific Advisory Board (NSASAB)

* Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee (JAEIC)

* The Guided Missile and Astronautics Intelligence Committee (GMAIC)

* The Scientific Intelligence Committee (SIC.)

CIA CREST documents

Now, upon checking various documents available on the CIA CREST website, I determined that the GMAIC, amongst other things, at their meetings, considered draft contributions to NIEs and SNIEs; revised the drafts, approved them, and then sent them to the Office of National Estimates (ONE.)

As an example, at the 19 April 1961 meeting, the GMAIC minutes of that meeting recorded:

"ITEM 1 SNIE 22-61

The Committee considered a draft contribution to SNIE 22-61 which had been prepared by [redacted word/s] ad hoc working group. The draft was revised, approved and forwarded to ONE as the GMAIC contribution to SNIE 22-61."

Reviewing the minutes of various GMAIC meetings held between 1 March 1961 and 19 December 1961 [the 1961 document stated that it was "Completed on 5 November 1961"] I noted numerous references to the GMAIC reviewing drafts of SNIE 11-4-61; NIE 11-5-61 and NIE 11-8/1-61; revising them; approving them and forwarding them on to ONE. Such was the process in 1961.

So, if the GMAIC did have a hand in preparing the 1961 document; one would expect to be able to find a reference to it in the minutes of a 1961 GMAIC meeting.

An inspection of the minutes of 23 GMAIC meetings held between 1 March 1961 and 19 December 1961; failed to find any reference to the 1961 document; either by number, title, or subject matter.

I did note that, out of the minutes from these 23 meetings I reviewed, that there were a few totally redacted agenda items. Some could argue that the reference to the 1961 document would be found in these redacted items. However, the other 99% of the agenda items are freely readable, so statistically I feel that the chances of a redacted agenda item being about the 1961 document is rather slim. I mention this for transparency of my argument.

Naturally, I would be delighted if any blog reader can locate a CIA document from the 1961 minutes of a GMAIC meeting which provides clear reference to the 1961 document.

5 comments:

  1. Among the many other anomalies associated with the "1961 document," the serial number "1-61-E" does not conform to the coded serial number system actually employed for NIEs and SNIEs.

    According to an authoritative historical work by highly regarded career CIA officer Sherman Kent, the numbering system instituted in 1953 followed these conventions: The final two-digit number designated the year of publication. The initial two-digit number stood for a geographical area; for example, "11" designated an NIE focused on the Soviet Union.

    https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/sherman-kent-and-the-board-of-national-estimates-collected-essays/making.html#rtoc12

    The middle number, when present, stood for how many NIEs for that particular geographical area had been issued during the calendar year. Thus, "11-5-61" meant the fifth Soviet-focused NIE issued in 1961.

    The numbering of the disputed UFO-nuke "1961 document" --"1-61-E"--bears no resemblance to this well-documented system. It appears that the genuine NIEs discussed in the 1961 GMAIC meetings reviewed by Keith Basterfield did follow the system described by Mr. Kent, as one would expect.

    Douglas D. Johnson
    @ddeanjohnson on Twitter

    ReplyDelete
  2. The "anomalies" in the documents did not come from "adjustments to the rules of writing", or to the "numbering formats", in fact in 1961 the American military documentary structure was in full transformation.
    I do not want to contradict someone, but there are many anonymous fantasists, who never had an original military document in their hands.
    To understand this, they have to speak directly to the few military personnel that still live, which is not much, and who have had high-level access.
    1961, and some years before and after, the military architecture was being renewed, the same thing happened with the reports, the initials, the numbers, and even the legislation of the congress and the executive in relation to these.
    And if you talk about UFOs, government investigation, secret reports and the origin of these, and nuclear weapons, in 1961, don't look to Russia, you have to look to the South.
    But in fact, I don't think you will, nobody really has had the balls to do it until now, because the forces that were moving in 1961 are much more powerful today.
    There are organizations in the world that go far beyond the governments and the most powerful armed forces in the world, but who will believe an old man like me who has already passed 90 winters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sir, when you refer to "South," do you mean the Southern U.S., or Southern hemisphere? The first Southern president since the 19th Century was waiting in the wings in 1961... But then you allude to more than presidents, governments or militaries.

      Delete
  3. My friend Carter M.
    The USSTRATCOM never made a difference between "north" and "south", let's leave that for the Civil War, we are talking about another serious story here.
    If we put nuclear weapons and UFOs together, only one region in the world produced so many confidential papers that they could fill your home garage multiple times.
    This began in 1956, for 8 years the US Navy, US Army, USAF and many government agencies, were following the evolution of strange events.
    The curve began with an incident of a Soviet submarine in Atlantic waters 16 nm from Cuba, hit by a submerged object, which headed for the United States.
    From that moment the dance began, reached its first peak in 1958 with Operation Argus in the waters of the South Atlantic, there at least 8 of the ships in the fleet recorded atmospheric and submarine sightings on repeated occasions.
    Especially the USS Norton Sound and the USS Tarawa.
    The second peak occurred, with a history of 1958 in the same place, in 1960 in the Valdez Peninsula, Argentina; then President Arturo Frondizi requested assistance from the United States to hunt for unidentified submarines, they never found them.
    But during the tasks at least 6 ships recorded sightings in the area, most of them atmospheric.
    And the third peak occurred with the missile crisis in 1962, curiously in the middle of the South Atlantic on the axis that separates the American continent from the African continent, in those 1600 nm, during 3 months, there were 288 sightings.
    The curve ended -1 ° / 1963- with a British ship arriving in the South Falkland Islands that lost its propellers when struck by an unknown object, and -2 ° / 1963- with a series of sightings around Mc Murdo base. , after the nuclear power plant was started there (1962).
    From the South Pole to Ecuador, in those 8 years, above, below and in the vicinity of the waters of the South Atlantic, there were nearly 4,000 sightings, recorded by United States military personnel.
    And don't ask about "declassification", there was not.

    ReplyDelete
  4. It is very, very interesting to look at the southern hemisphere, about UFOs and nuclear weapons.
    Between 1956 and 1957 nuclear tests in Aust ralia triggered strange sightings, so the date range seems to be explained by someone who really knows what it is about.

    ReplyDelete

An analysis of the latest Department of Defense statement on UAP

Office of Naval Intelligence In a blog post dated 9 July 2020, titled "Is the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) now part of the ...